Petr Nečas is hanging in there, for now

Economist: AT the congress of the ODS, the Civic Democratic Party, last weekend, Petr Nečas, the Czech Republic's embattled prime minister, defended his ODS leadership against a vocal rebellion. But his victory may prove to be a short-lived triumph: Mr Nečas's frail ruling coalition could collapse nonetheless this week. 

The prime minister is facing adamant opposition from five lawmakers of the centre-right ODS (the sixth insurgent left the party on October 31st). The renegades reject the cabinet's plan to raise taxes in 2013 in order to meet the European Union's budget deficit criteria and maintain low borrowing costs for the state. 

After several delays, parliament's lower house is expected to take up the contentious bill, which is linked to a vote of confidence, on November 7th. The prime minister has so far failed to sway his opponents whose real motives have been questioned. 

As expected, the party congress did little to calm the waters. The renegades have insisted before and during the convention that they would not vote in favour of higher value-added tax though they may vote for a hike in income tax for high-income earners, which is another contested policy.

Mr Nečas's new first deputy at the party's helm, Martin Kuba, might be more successful at hammering out a deal than his boss. The prime minister could also fish for much-needed votes in opposition waters. The ruling coalition now commands a mere 100 votes, which includes the five rebels and one opposition lawmaker, in the 200-strong chamber. 

If the cabinet falls, the Czech Republic could face an early election. It would likely bring to power a leftist cabinet, and possibly one that includes the Communist Party, or is backed by the Communists. Centre-right parties have long used the fear of the Communist Party's comeback to drum up their vote.  A recent regional election showed that this trick may no longer work. Deeply disillusioned with political sleaze, voters who have traditionally voted for the right stayed home. The Communist Party triumphed. 

Czech politics is suffering from a crisis of credibility. Voters' patience with politicians involved in corruption scandals has run out. They have been turning their backs to the scandal-ridden parties that have established themselves early in the post-communist era. Thrifty conservatives appear to have been hit harder by voter apathy than their centre-left rivals. Austerity and sleaze make for an explosive combination. Voters show little understanding for unpleasant cuts when they suspect their elected leaders (and their business allies) of depleting state coffers. 

The Civic Democrats, once a dominant force on the right spearheading the country's transformation from ailing centrally-planned economy to free market, have been shrinking in both size and influence. "We come across as a cold political party that may care about principles but not about the fate of individuals," Mr Nečas told the congress. His predecessor, Mirek Topolánek, invited to address the delegates, was incensed "The ODS does not have voters. It is a small party. Wake up!" he stormed from the lectern. (Ihned.cz, a news website, noted that these words came from the ex-captain who had helped to run the Titanic into an iceberg.)

Analysts agree that the ODS is indeed sinking just like its Slovak counterpart, the once mighty Slovak Democratic and Christian Union. "[The Civic Democratic Party] is in serious crisis," said Jiří Pehe, a political scientist who heads the New York University's Prague branch. "I would even think that this party put made a step forward to gradual extinction."