No Majority for Italy

Corriere della Sera: The Italy that emerges from the ballot box is a jigsaw puzzle with tiny pieces. The two main coalitions look to be neck and neck, with the Centre-left ahead by a nose (31.6% against 30.65% in the Senate), but the real winner is Beppe Grillo’s Five Star MoVement (M5S). The stand-up comedian has pulled off an unprecedented exploit by garnering 23.79% in the Senate and 25.55% in the Chamber of Deputies, a result that puts M5S in first place in the Chamber, ahead of the Democratic Party (PD) by a handful of votes. Meanwhile the PD has managed to secure the majority premium thanks to its alliance with Left Ecology Freedom (SEL). Nichi Vendola’s party could only scrape together 3.2% but the coalition includes the Democratic Centre (CD) and the Südtiroler Volkspartei (SVP). This gives the Centre-left 29.55%, a wafer-thin 0.4% lead over the People of Freedom (PDL), Northern League and their allies. At the end of the day, the two line-ups are separated by just 120,000 votes.

NO MAJORITY – The vote for the Chamber of Deputies closed with a firm majority thanks to the mechanism that assigns a block of extra seats to the winning coalition but the situation in the Senate can be summed up in one word: ungovernability. Neither of the softcore alliances – PD-SEL+Monti or PDL-Northern League+Monti – has any chance of reaching the 158 seats that signify an absolute majority and the possibility of forming a viable government. Party leaders also say there is no chance now of an improbable hardcore alliance of either grouping with M5S in a reincarnation of the “odd majority” that supported the technocrat government. The wounds left by a no-holds-barred election campaign are still raw. Monti, Bersani and Berlusconi pulled no punches as they slugged it out yet now the fuss has died down, they will have to think in terms of alliances. PD secretary Pier Luigi Bersani issued a statement to say: “It is clear to all that a very delicate situation is opening up for Italy. We will handle the responsibilities that these elections have thrust upon us in the interest of the nation”. During the afternoon, Mr Bersani’s number two Enrico Letta called for an immediate return to the polls, only to adjust his stance later.

TOO CLOSE TO CALL − The PDL secretary Angelino Alfano, who on Monday afternoon had somewhat prematurely claimed that the Centre-right had a relative majority in the Senate (the figures then gradually shifted as the count wore on), issued a statement at midnight to point out that the interior ministry figures “are only unofficial” and “inevitably subject to a margin of error”, “undoubtedly higher than the truly minuscule gap in votes recorded for the two leading coalitions in the Chamber of Deputies”. Mr Alfano also called on the interior ministry to declare the election “too close to call”, American-style. “Alfano should not exacerbate the climate by denying the facts. The Centre-left has obtained more votes in the Chamber and Senate”, was the immediate reply from the PD’s organising secretary Nico Stumpo.

GRILLO: “NO COSYING UP” – Grillo supporters are now being urged to face up to the institutional responsibilities entailed by winning the consensus of one voter in four. But Beppe Grillo has already ruled out that prospect in a video message published when the overall picture was already reasonably clear: “There’ll be no cosying up. We’ll be dishing it out to everyone in Parliament”. Grillo supporters have started celebrating. The choices to be made in the chamber can wait.

MONTI’S DISAPPOINTMENT – The centrist grouping led by the prime minister, Mario Monti, could only manage a disappointing 9.13% in the Senate, barely creeping into double figures in the Chamber of Deputies (10.56%). Mr Monti expressed satisfaction (“we have amassed more than three million voters in fifty days”) but the vote for his allies Pier Ferdinando Casini and Gianfranco Fini was microscopic (respectively 1.79% and 0.76% in the Chamber of Deputies). Stunningly, Mr Fini failed to gain election to the Chamber of Deputies, of which he is the outgoing leader. The vote for Antonio Ingroia’s Civil Revolution (RC) was equally exiguous at just over 2%, which means RC failed to reach the 4% quorum and will not be represented in Parliament. Another of the faces that will no longer be enlivening parliamentary debates is that of Antonio Di Pietro. Mr Ingroia blames the PD for RC’s poor showing: “They should admit that they are responsible for the failure to reach an agreement. They mounted a campaign against us”.

TURN-OUT – Monday brought no change to the plummeting turn-out reported on Sunday and the final figure was significantly lower than in the previous general election in 2008. Only 75.17% of the electorate cast a vote for the Chamber of Deputies, in comparison with 80.5% in 2008 (-5.33%), while the Senate figure was 75.19%, as against 2008’s 80.46%. Concomitance with the general election boosted the turn-out for regional polls, where voter numbers spiked. Some 74.6% of the electorate voted for regional chairs in Lombardy, Lazio and Molise, a clear 11.5% more than the previous total of 63.1%. The highest turn-out was in Lombardy with 76.6%, 12% more than the previous 64.63%, while Lazio climbed to 72% from 60.9% and Molise reported a 61.5% turn-out as against 59.8%.